Listen to Ashley Easen talk about Emerging Risks and the Zoo of Risks in her full webinar:
Playback link
Emerging Risks and Black Swans
Ashley Easen’s webinar explores how organisations can identify, understand, and manage emerging risks and black swan events – rare, unpredictable events with significant impact. It emphasises foresight, resilience, and integration of risk thinking into strategic decision-making.
Defining Emerging Risks
Emerging risks are new or evolving threats arising from weak knowledge bases or changing contexts.
They may stem from innovation, societal shifts, or technological developments (ISO 31050).
Key characteristics: difficult to define, rapidly changing, interconnected, uncertain, volatile, and often uncontrollable.
Managing Complexity
Organisations face intertwined internal and external pressures – economic, political, social, and technological.
Effective leaders must focus not on avoiding risks, but on how they respond.
Avoiding the Ostrich Effect
Ignoring difficult risks invites failure.
Organisations must:
- Build resilience and adaptability
- Encourage leadership foresight and risk scanning
- Prepare for uncertainty through proactive culture and planning
Black Swan Preparation
Black swan events – rare and unpredictable – require structured readiness:
- Develop contingency and crisis plans
- Foster organisational resilience
- Diversify operations and investments
- Strengthen financial buffers
- Use data analytics, scenario planning, and collaboration to enhance preparedness
From Hindsight to Foresight
Foresight, not hindsight, drives survival.
Evidence-based approaches, supported by data, analysis, and communication, enable better prioritisation in complex environments.
Digital Transformation & Emerging Threats
While digitalisation increases connectivity and efficiency, it introduces risks such as cyber threats, misinformation, and digital dependency.
Managing these requires robust information security and awareness of digital inequalities.
Integrating Emerging Risks into ERM
A resilient Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework should:
- Be flexible and inclusive of all risks
- Address interconnected and uncertain factors
- Apply Horizon Scanning, Scenario Analysis, and Bow Tie Methodology
- Adapt to both deep (unknown) and shallow (known) uncertainties
